ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. it is time now for "final trades." pete, start us off. >> stick with financials. >> joey? >> you want to put a pairs trade on short consumer discretionary, xlb materials. >> tbf. good way to play it. >> you think maybe we'll get that rotation we've been talking about? >> hope so. >> doc? >> hgq, the double silver long it. >> more "fast money" later tonight. watch "power lunch" right now. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" starts right now. >> merry cliff-mas, everybody. five days left and still no deal. president obama cutting short

his annual vacation in hawaii to deal with the fiscal cliff. no sight of congressional leaders. they're not in town. investors getting a little bit nervous. will congress get it together in time? no talks that we know of are imminent. it was by at least one measure, the weakest holiday retail sales growth since the financial crisis back in 2008, but could a post-christmas holiday sales bounce be around the corner? and what a year it has been for tech. gadgets and gizmos. apple, facebook, microsoft all have big news. will 2013 be a lucky year for the sector? which tech titans might lead the new trends? simon hobbs is in at the new york stock exchange. >> good afternoon. when president obama arrives back in d.c., can he prevent america falling over the fiscal cliff? house republicans haven't yet called their members back to washington. our chief political correspondent, john harwood, is

with us. john, this feels very much like it might be the calm before the storm in more way than one. >> it could be if we go over the cliff and the storm would be generated by the markets and the loss of confidence in american governance and the american economy, but that's not necessarily going to be the case. we still have a few days left. a white house official told me that there have been no progress over the last couple of days, but an aide to senator harry reid told me there's still a 50/50 chance we get a mini deal that would put off the effects of the cliff at least temporarily and a 50/50 chance of that happening before january 1st. so even though there's a small number of days, sometimes the urgency of a deadline forces lawmakers to overcome differences they can't overcome otherwise. >> remind us, john, a mini deal is composed in the senate but still has to pass through house republicans and boehner or not? >> yes. and the question about the mini deal would be, what we're talking about, just to make

clear for our viewers, would be a temporary extension of tax cuts for incomes under $250,000, a couple of months, for example, a temporary turn-off of the sequester, the automatic cuts equally in defense and nondefense programs that nobody wants to happen, you temporarily turn those off, you extend unemployment benefits, you do something about doctor payments under medicare. if that happens, and clears the senate, there would be a bipartisan majority in the senate if it is allowed to get to the floor, then you would have to have speaker boehner agree to put that on the floor, it would pass the house almost certainly, but the speaker has been reluctant to put any bill on the floor for a vote that doesn't have the support of a majority of his own members, of republican members. he would have to breach that rule in order for it to happen before january 1st. >> which is no small feat, as we see. before we let you go, this business has been very forthright in its rise above

campaign which basically tell political parties to get it together and do what was right for the country. i see other businesses particularly in d.c. beginning to pick up that lead. >> well, you have starbucks stores tomorrow are beginning a campaign, i don't know how large the campaign is going to be, to have inscribed on some of the sleeves that go around their coffee to make it easier to hold, going to write "come together" in a message to politicians in washington, and you know, if coffee can't unite people, what can? >> let's hope. the clock's still ticking. john harwood in washington, thank you. what are the chances that a deal can be reached this week? jonathan allen is a senior correspondent at politico. welcome. you just heard john harwood say that there are some rumblings that there might be a 50/50 chance of a so-called mini deal that would do something to avoid the sequestration and avoid the

worst of the tax hikes. is that what you're hearing? >> that's how bad it is. we're down to a 50/50 chance of a mini deal. for two years the president and the congress together collectively and also individually essentially abdicated their leadership on the budget. i don't know why anybody would necessarily expect that to change over the next two or three days so the best you could hope for is a little bit of kicking the can down the road a little further, abdication. there is no indication there's any movement on a deal yet. the president is coming back into town with hopes of changing that dynamic, but we still haven't seen anything that resembles an agreement. by the way, once they reach something, they've still got to sell this to the individual members of congress, not just on the senate side but also these house republicans who have shown a willingness to sometimes take things to the very edge. >> mr. boehner was not able to pass through or bring to the floor his proposal on plan b which would have allowed tax rates to stay where they were except on the million dollar plus earners.

is his speakership in the balance here in any sense? >> in some ways, not bringing stuff to the floor is actually better for him with his own members. they don't want to take votes that they see as purely -- as purely sort of signals. they don't want to vote to raise taxes if they're not actually going to be moving that package forward, if they're going to vote to raise taxes or at least let tax rates expire on the upper end, they only want to do that once. that's not something they want to keep doing. certainly if speaker boehner puts something on the floor that his republican conference is not happy with, that's a risk that he's taking. >> has the president moved much on spending? because we talk all the time about the taxes but we seem to give a little less emphasis on the spending. is the president meaningful moving on that? >> depends on your definition of meaningfully. certainly there has been some movement from the white house over time on spending. i think there's been a movement toward talking about entitlements. when you talk about the cpi, consumer price index, that shift over there, that's a small

concession to where republicans are but nobody's really talking about the big spending cuts that would have to be made to major entitlement programs to really alter the way that our budget course looks for the future, or to raise taxes in such a way as to pay for those programs as they are currently constituted. >> we made a lot of promises that are too costly to keep, it seems to me. thank you very much. have a happy new year. >> you, too. >> simon? >> let's check where we are in the markets. one of the major questions you've got to ask, in the wake of the quite big fall you had on the dow on friday, the biggest in a month, whether we are now reaching a turning point and the market is becoming sensitized to what is happening in washington and where, therefore, that will lead us in terms of price action over the next five days. bob pisani? >> if you look at the interday, we were positive on the day earlier on. we dropped in the middle of the day and some people are attributing this to concerns that the house leadership did

not issue the 48 hour call for the whole house to come back into session and vote on a proposed plan even though there isn't one out there, some are interpreting this to mean there will be no deal certainly going into the weekend. of course, the time period on which we can do something now gets smaller and smaller. let me show you a couple sectors here. we talked about this mastercard report on sales only up 0.7%. luxury retailers getting hit hard. can i just point out that none of these luxury retailers have done very well this year. tiffany, coach, ralph lauren are negative on the year and have been even before today's report. michael kors is the standout in luxury. remember they went public about a year ago. that's had a great run, up about 60% this year. but that's the standout in retail. can i also point out that some of the big banks are holding up very well today. there's another new high on bank of america. citigroup is at a 52-week high and soj me of the regional bank also on a high as well. >> time for a cough drop.

>> sorry. >> bob pisani battling through. we are also on storm watch today. the deadly system that dumped snow and sleet in the country's midsection, releasing tornadoes around the deep south, that's now moving towards the northeast and it is having a major impact on holiday travelers. with hundreds of flights now canceled. weather channel meteorologist david malkoff has the very latest on the storm's path. >> wow, look at that. we are getting 25, 26, 28 mile an hour wind gusts right here on the northern suburbs of indianapolis, indiana, and it is getting worse as the winds start to push and the snow starts to fall down here. let's talk about the airports around the nation. starting here in indianapolis, at last check, 144 flights canceled. we're seeing the same kind of numbers out of dallas and also

cancellations out of chicago. at cleveland-hopkins, out of columbus, all of those airports are being affected by this storm and that means that a lot of people will not be able to get back home after their holiday vacations. let's talk about the financial impact just here in indianapolis, one of the big malls closed down for the day. this is traditionally a big day where people go to return things and also use those gift cards. still, they can use the gift cards online. that is the silver lining to this very silvery day here in the midwest. i'm dave malkoff for the weather channel. back to you guys. >> it's coming here, ladies and gentlemen. now to mary thompson with a market flash. >> you know, among all these retail stocks which were down today, we do have one trending

higher, jcpenney up almost 2%, up for the second session in a row. in the wake of a positive note on oppenheimer saying the company's aggressive discounting into the holiday season should actually bode well for the company's sales in what has turned out to be a much weaker than expected holiday shopping season than some analysts have predicted. again, jcpenney up over 2%. >> thank you. slowest holiday retail sales growth since 2008 according to one measure. will holiday gift cards give stores a big boost? jane wells is live. is mario lopez there? he hangs out there, right? >> reporter: mario, love you! no, he's not here. we will talk about gift cards next, which ones are the best to use, which ones are the most people are buying and we are also going to look at how some retailers have developed a new strategy starting for after christmas.

i'm the operating partner of exchange bar and grill located in new york city. i'm annoyed. i'm annoyed with the fiscal cliff. we're looking at not knowing what's going to happen. we fall off this cliff and everyone gets affected. there's no trickle down effect. it's more like a slush. we will lose income. the question is, how much income are we going to lose. if we fall off the cliff, the fear is that we fall off the cliff, not slowly glide down the cliff. big government at this point needs to understand that we should be able to trust you to do the right thing, put politics aside, think about us, the people. that's why we have government. fix it. a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can.

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as the holiday season comes to a close, the early numbers suggest that what started out strong is now ending in a whimper. mastercard spending cost unit estimates that sales rose 0.7% over the past two months compared to a year ago, which would be the weakest pace of annual growth since 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. earlier this morning, cnbc spoke with michael mcnamara from mastercard. >> beginning of december when we start to see sales come down, the confidence numbers also start to come down. it's something that the media coverage really has brought home and really clarified what the fiscal cliff means to personal finance. that debate really seems to be

acting, it's almost creating a sense of gravity that's pulling down different elements of the economies. >> now, remember what they're reporting here is a 0.7% gain in sales year on year. it's not about margins, not about excess inventory, not about how profitable they've been. that's why some of these stocks have fallen to an even greater extent as you can see. macy's, coach, gap, sears and nordstrom in negative territory. this is the first read we've had on the sales for the season until these guys come through one by one with their own figures. >> that's right. virtually every retailer down at this hour. weak sales of course heading into the holidays, but will retailers see a post-christmas bump? jane wells live at the grove in los angeles where card-carrying shoppers are looking for deals. >> reporter: people are here carrying bags in for returns, carrying bags out with new purchases, but some retailers

are actually developing entire strategies for what's happening starting today. macy's in particular is being especially aggressive with its quote, week of wonderful after-christmas sale. good-bye holidays, hello savings, it says. expect a lot of those savings -- sales to be bought with gift cards. ceb tower group says gift card sales this year will hit a record $110 billion and shoppers, listen up, bank rate says store branded gift cards charge lower fees on cards than banks or credit card companies so which types of cards are the most popular? >> the number one type of gift cards that people want or are going to buy were department stores. that was followed by restaurants, bookstores, electronics and then entertainment which included music and movies. >> okay. we were just talking about awful depressing numbers from mastercard, spending pulse

showing 0.7% growth in the holidays. lot of analysts disputing that number and the national retail federation is saying you got to be kidding me. >> the last time the numbers were as low as these guys are saying they were was christmas of 2008, and we all remember what was going on in the fall of 2008. so we don't think we're going to see numbers like that when this is all said and done. >> reporter: now, they are sticking with the sales growth prediction for the holiday. we won't know for sure until many of the retailers start reporting december sales, a week from friday, so end of next week. of course, if you look at how the shares are doing, all down today, there are two huge retailers, top two aren't part of that reporting group that's going to be next week. amazon and walmart. we'll get most of everyone else but we won't get the two 800 pound gorillas in retail. >> you make a great point. you have to wait until the retailers themselves actually report their results to get

maybe a more definitive view of this. it seemed also like there was not any item this year in many stores that was the must-have. remember when the ugg boots were so popular two years ago? that brought people in and drove sales. this year, i don't know what it is. it was nothing, really. >> reporter: no, and actually, marshall cohen made a really interesting point about that. he said that's why gift cards did so well because you didn't know what to get anybody. you just gave them a gift card. >> the hoody-footy pajamas. that's what i love. >> reporter: always. >> always very nice. holiday retail sales growing by that one measure at their weakest pace since '08 so are you waiting for post-christmas bargains or a fiscal cliff resolution? what are you waiting for? go to yahoo!.finance.com and take our poll. simon? >> i just want to say one more thing on this subject before we hit the break. i didn't realize that as far as retailers are concerned, gift card sales are not counted on their earnings until people have

actually spent the money on the gift card. that means two things. it means the race is on for these guys to now book the profits and make people spend but also, that there may be salvation in that everybody wanted gift cards this year and that's why the initial figures look so weak. that could come back as a result of what happens over the next couple of days. >> yeah. i got some gift cards myself and you're quite right. i don't think those sales are booked until the gift card is actually redeemed. >> so let's move on for the moment. pages and pages of new rules go into effect next year as part of president obama's health care bill. what it all means for the health care sector and investors in 2013, ahead on the show. plus, want to improve your dating life? potentially you may now have to improve your credit score. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation.

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the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know. we've decided to we're all having such a great year in the gulf, put aside our rivalry. 'cause all our states are great. and now is when the gulf gets even better. the beaches and waters couldn't be more beautiful. take a boat ride or just lay in the sun.

enjoy the wildlife and natural beauty. and don't forget our amazing seafood. so come to the gulf, you'll have a great time. especially in alabama. you mean mississippi. that's florida. say louisiana or there's no dessert. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. welcome back. i'm mary thompson. we're looking at shares of jds, its shares just about at 90% after the price target on the stock was raised to $16 from $12. the company is optimistic about its sales of optical equipment going into 2013. it also says it believes the company actually took shares in the downturn in the telecom equipment market. slew of new rules go into effect next year as part of president obama's health care overhaul. what will it mean for the health care sector as we head into '13?

we take a look at what's in store. >> reporter: the rollout of obama care will weigh heavily on health care services, medical devices and health insurors. hospital stocks, the best performers in the health care sector in 2012, likely to be volatile and vulnerable in 2013 as new medicare rules peg reimbursement rates more to outcomes rather than just the numbers of procedures. >> reporter: for insurors, 2013 will bring more m & a to diversified business as u.s. profit margins are squeezed by regulation and competition. united health's $5 billion acquisition of brazil's biggest health provider will likely push others to hunt for more international growth. >> medical device makers face a 2.3% excise tax starting in 2013 under obama care. it's been a head wind for stocks like boston scientific and striker. any kind of reprieve on that rate is going to be a positive for the sector. >> reporter: the biggest story of the year will be the buildout of the state health exchanges.

the federal government has to build 32 of them for states opting out, along with a complex central data hub to manage eligibility and subsidy payments. it will be little short of a miracle to get the online insurance marketplaces up and running smoothly by october 1st, when millions of uninsured americans are supposed to start signing up for obama care coverage. >> so what rule will have the biggest impact on the health care industry and who will be most affected? joining us now, max nissan, corporate strategy reporter with business insider. max, you have done some work on this. what do investors need to know from your point of view? >> from my point of view, what you have coming in 2013 and 2014 is a rollout of all of the really big provisions of the health care act that we haven't seen yet. you have the health care exchanges, you have the huge medicaid expansion. what that's going to do is increase cost pressures on hospitals which is already a low margin business. many of these hospitals are already in the red.

so you're going to see huge movement towards consolidation, smaller community hospitals and university health systems are going to join in with larger systems and you will see the big public systems like community health systems in tenet and hga more mortgaergers, more consolin as they try to drive scale and efficiency. >> health care stocks in general are up 16%. you are not an analyst, you are a journalist like me, but where do you think value may lie in the stock market? >> there are a couple different places. one thing that doesn't get spoken about as much is the fact that there's a much bigger emphasis on preventive care and primary care, the sort of basic first line checkups, to avoid the bigger problems down the line. we have this idea in the united states that every time you have a sniffle or need to get a shot, you need to go to the doctor's office. that's not the case. it's a very expensive misconception. more and more, you will have people going to their local walgreens to get a flu shot or

basic line of tests. there's a huge opportunity not there but for other companies that enter that sort of basic first line of providing health care to grow in the next year. >> okay. thanks for the analysis, max. good to meet you. max nisen from business insider. will 2013 be a lucky year for tech? which of the tech titans will lead the new trends? that's ahead. plus, forget about a college education. why the oil fields of america are now attracting the young. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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gold prices closing right now. let's get to bertha coombs. >> gold closing fractionally higher, on track for its twelfth yearly gain, smallest since 2008 because it's been a very tough quarter for gold. despite the fact we've had all these worries, whether it be the fiscal cliff, the election, the situation in europe. nonetheless, gold has just not been the safe haven. this morning, it was industrial metals that got a boost as we saw rallies in asia on hopes that maybe this new regime in china is going to be spending

more helping to prop up the property department there, housing, than might mean more demand for industrial metals. copper today, the standout in part because of that. also, a different note, the s.e.c. ahead of the holiday delayed a decision on the proposed etf, according to the "wall street journal," the etf would hold twice as much copper in terms of holdings compared to the jpmorgan holding approved on december 14th. >> i think 182,000 physical tons they could take off the market. we'll revisit it later. for a moment, thank you. bob pisani is joining me on the floor of the nyse. the big discussion is about retail and what the figures from mastercard tell us. >> i just want to point out that the dow industrials dropped in the middle of the day. there had been some concern the house leadership which is all coming back now did not send out a 48-hour notice to their membership requiring all the members to show up and vote,

even though there's no fiscal cliff deal, there was hope they would bring everybody back and try to get something going on friday afternoon. that hasn't happened. if you look at the dow, we were positive earlier in the day and now been negative for awhile. simon mentioned mastercard's spending pulse data, only up 0.7%. this was a surprise to a lot of people and the analysts didn't have these numbers. you can see the effect it's had on some of the luxury stocks. i do want to point out that i think there is some misinterpretation of this data. i'll explain a little bit more at the top of the hour. but these mastercard survey excludes certain categories, nonholiday categories that are very important and might have shown a little bit better. so the national retail federation thinks it will be up 4.1%. i think after you take a look at the details, you will see that mastercard might actually be closer to that number when you include all of the categories that are possible to be surveyed. finally, i want to point out good news with the bank stocks. they are continuing, some of them, to hold up very well.

new highs in bank of america and some regional banks also on the up side as well. let's check in with the nasdaq. clearly shares there are taking a hit. research emotion having a very good day. seema mody is following the big movers. >> that's right, quite the turnaround in shares. it went from being the worst performing stock in the nasdaq 100 friday to being the best performing stock today. this is what you call a relief rally. traders basically covering their shorts. there is also some blogs out there leaking pictures of what they say is the newest blackberry, perhaps that's adding fuel. you can see the stock up better than 10%. netflix also a bright spot. not the move you would expect after some customers were impacted by a service outage on christmas eve. it has been fully restored and we are seeing shares higher on the day. brick and mortar not the only retailers moving lower on that mastercard spending pulse report that showed holiday sales coming in lower than expected. we are seeing some of the specialty retail names getting hit.

take a look at urban outfitters, zumiez moving lower. the report highlighted online sales which grew 8.4% from october 28th through saturday which is lower from the online sales growth of 15% to 17% seen in the prior 18 month period. amazon of course and ebay both have strong position in the e-commerce space. we are seeing shares of both companies down on the day. >> seema, thank you very much. let's check the bond markets in chicago with rick santelli. >> we are down a couple of basis points in a ten year note hovering at 175, as you see on the interday chart, but if you really want to see what's going on, let's look at the four-month chart. we're in a range and the highest yield on this four-month chart is around midseptember. that yield around 1.87. that's important, being the top of the range, because it also happens to be where we close 2011. so you can see we are about ten basis points, 12, to be exact, below unchanged on the year in terms of yield.

if we move to foreign exchange, if you look at the dollar yen, the euro yen, the pound yen, you can pretty much get to see the same thing, that the yen is getting the short end of the chart no matter what major developed currency you plug up against it. this isn't lost on the foreign exchange traders, who continue to see very strong gains at the expense of the yen, mostly due to quantitative easing. look for that to continue to be a big story not only between the holidays but for 2013. back to you. >> thank you very much. less than a week until the new year begins and we are launching our lucky 13 series, focusing on the tech sector. what trends should investors be watching and maybe putting money up against? here to tell us is technology reporter natalie morris. welcome back. you had a little baby since the last time, ava. congratulations. >> thank you very much. >> nice christmas, i'm sure. let's start with what you see as a possibility in the phone space next year. >> okay. so i'm seeing a lot of rumors about something called branded

phones. so facebook, amazon, now google, mozilla, having whisperings about their own phone which may be a little confusing for consumers but these are phones that are highly branded with these services and that you will be able to get to the services anywhere you are. you can facebook anything -- >> instead of motorola, i will have a private label amazon phone that's going to help me get to amazon and its services quickly, facebook and its quickly. but will they run on droid or microsoft's platform? >> that's the question. there are rumors that mozilla will do their own operating system but a lot of these will probably use some version of android. >> let's talk about microsoft which is always in the news. the surface, the initial one, it's a very nice piece of equipment but you say watch microsoft's surface pro. >> right. the original surface got a mehh. the pro is the one that we're kind of excited about because it can run the full version of windows professional 8. that means anything you can do

on your windows device or your windows pc, you can now do on this tablet so what microsoft wants is for the pro to be to the business person what the blackberry once was. >> an enterprise solution. they're looking for enterprise solution here. >> if you think about it, if you can do everything that you can do on a windows pc on this tablet, that makes that a real productivity device in a way the ipad really hasn't been yet. >> we've heard the next two fall in the areas, i've heard this one before. let's start with wearable technology. if you can find one that makes me lose 20 pounds right away, that's the kind of technology i can invest in. >> i really like this kind of thing. it's things that you put on your body that either is a pedometer, gives you your personal health stats, your heart rate, your sleep patterns. people tend to really like this. the fit bit was a big seller this year. >> what's that? >> it's just a pedometer you wear on your pants or bra if you're a woman, then it gives you how many steps and calories you burned throughout the day.

it kind of gets you moving, gets you going. there are other technologies that kind of work along with that same concept and give you your heart rate and calories burned and your sleep patterns. people really like data about their own body in order to keep themselves healthy. i like this kind of thing. i'm glad to see it. >> you have one? >> i do. i have a fit bit, yeah. there's something called a basis band that's coming out in the next year that i really like, because it also is a heart rate monitor. >> yeah. good. find out who makes those kind of things. the other thing, the smart house, the devices that will set my thermostat and turn on the stove and so on and so forth. you know, i can't even get my tv to work sometimes. >> okay. you've heard this before. in fact, i was here last year saying the exact same thing. but you know, i wasn't wrong. the nest was a big seller this year. these are things that can tell you how much energy you're using, you can control them with your smartphone app so they can connect to the internet. so devices are getting smarter and smarter. they are learning our energy usage habits and are saving us

energy. in fact, we have a nest in my house and it saved us about $300 a month this summer in air conditioning bills. >> the final one, what is it, 4d television or 4k television? >> this is ultra-high definition television. why have high definition when you can have ultra-high definition. someone who works in tv, i'm sure you're really excited to see this. sony is already selling these. they are about 25 grand so that's not affordable. >> how much better def do i get? now it's 1080p. how many more pixels do i get? >> you have to see it to believe it. i saw demos before and thought okay, you don't know you want this until you see it. then you think yes, i want this. sony is doubling down on this technology by remastering some of these movies for this type of technology. they've got "spider-man" out. i think we will talk about it -- >> i don't think that's even 2d up there. >> if you're looking -- >> got a big burnout hole in

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ground. the provider of weight loss programs is also losing executives. this time it's its acting cfo, edward powers, resigning no later than january 4th according to an s.e.c. filing. this comes of course in the wake of the resignation of the firm's prior cfo back in november. again, its shares taking a hit on that news, down almost 13%. simon, back to you. thank you very much. in today's yahoo! finance poll, we asked you one measure of holiday sales indicating the weakest pace of recovery since 2008. what is your take? the vast majority of you, two-thirds almost, saying that uncertainty over the fiscal cliff is holding you back. of course, we saw that in the survey data time and time again. now it may be appearing in the real numbers as we head towards that deadline five days and counting. now let's see what's coming up on "street signs." coming up at the top of this hour, forget the fiscal cliff. we are staring down the barrel

of a container cliff as unions are threatening to shut down ports along the eastern seaboard. also, we peer in netflix's christmas eve outage. what does it mean for the company, for the stock? and what did it mean for movie theaters that evening? also, herbalife is getting legal muscle to combat bill ackman's short posture against the company. the question is whether or not it's going to come to reinvestors. i'm down here at the stock exchange. back to you. >> lovely to see you, as ever. thank you very much. gold trading close. we showed you a few moments ago t goldman sachs commodity index barely hanging on to gains this year despite a lot of losing bets, investors are still pumping billions into the sector. jackie deangelis is looking at the winners and losers. >> good afternoon. what we have seen a bit of a correction in commodities. if the index ends the year a

little lower, it will be the first decline we've seen since 2008. but you're right, the commodities saw a lot of interest this year. money invested in commodity funds is up 86% year over year according to epfr global. what were some of the movers influencing the landscape? let's start with the laggards. coffee, sugar, cotton got hurt this year due to supply increases but the good news is that prices are close to the cost of production so analysts think that this group could be poised for a rebound. meantime, oj futures also lost ground but seasonally, this is the time that prices tend to rise on concerns over damaging frost in florida. we saw a spike just like that in early january of this year. then there's crude oil, of course, losing some ground this year as well. roughly 8% year to date. many traders have been placing -- playing its recent range as they wait for more news on the fiscal cliff before they make those long term bets. but there were also some pockets of strength that can't be ignored. the ag complex rose sharply in the wake of this summer's drought, the worst that we saw

in 50 years. also, lumber, the best performer by far, logging huge gains as the housing market appears to be on the mend. then there were the metals. silver, gold, palladium and copper, aluminum on track for more modest gains this year. interesting to note that 84% of the funds that were invested in physical commodities were invested in gold. what was the most overlooked commodity this year? several traders told me that they thought it was natural gas. they expected it to be a more crowded trade. they also said they will be watching it in 2013. tyler? >> thank you very much. commodities, let's talk more about them. are they worth your money in '13? bill o'neill is managing partner. welcome back, good to see you again. i will take you through some things pretty quickly. favorite commodity to be among the metals for 2013? >> i would say copper. i think it has a tremendous potential. we have a production deficit. i think future demand underestimated at this point. particularly in the second half of the year, could be a big winner. >> that would suggest a global

growth play. >> it would improve growth, not necessarily explosive growth, but it would express china, for example, the rest of asia. >> favorite commodity in the agricultures? >> i would say corn. there's a battle for the acreage going on between corn, soy beans, cotton. they are all grown in the same area. the demand for corn from both an ethanol standpoint and also from a food calorie standpoint is going to be huge. potential sleeper, copper, because it's the least favored on a price basis so they're not going to be planning much. we could -- >> copper? >> cotton. >> i thought you said copper. >> i might have. >> planting copper, you've got me there, baby. >> they could be a substantial decline in cotton acreage. >> simon? >> can we just take you back to copper. we had a mention of this earlier in the show. the fact that you have these two physically backed copper etfs which may or may not get clearance from the s.e.c., one, jpmorgan has gone through,

ishares appears to be in difficulty at the moment. if we get these two etfs seeing copper coming through, it's going to take 182,000 tons of copper off the real market. does that so distort the copper market next year, it becomes an automatic one-way bet virtually? >> no, i don't think it becomes an automatic one-way bet. it will add to what is already shaping up as a large production deficit. it's interesting, because in the middle of the year, they were saying 2013 we were going to have a big production surplus. doesn't look like it's going to go that way. however, it would be a help. this is not another gold or silver from the standpoint of causing a super explosion, in my opinion. >> what about oil, gas, the other liquids? >> i don't like natural gas. natural gas has kind of been a favorite because its long term prospects are excellent. if you ask me two, three, five years from now, i would be very bullish. right now we have record supplies. weather doesn't look that great. at least for the first part of the year, i don't particularly like it.

now, crude oil over supplied market, more than abundant supply but i'm bullish. there's too much going on geopolitically. if we do have even this modest improvement in global demand for industrial commodities we talked about in copper, we will see that translate. i would not be short crude. i would be looking to buy weakness in crude. i think we will have 100 plus prices in 2013. >> all right. bill, thank you very much. always a pleasure. >> have a good new year. >> simon? as college degrees become more and more expensive, some of america's youth it would appear certainly in the oil country are not opting out of higher education. more on that ahead. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- you can stay in and like something... or you can get out there and actually like something. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection.

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time for the power rundown. here to cut through today's news with their swords of truth and justice are tyler and bob pisani. we have three stories from the "new york times," guys. first it would appear in america's oil country, 19 year olds are now rejecting a college education in favor of getting paid $50,000 a year to monitor oil pipelines for up to 15 hours a day. tyler, you're a father. would you let your son or

daughter do it? >> absolutely, i would. if my son could only earn $50,000 making a job. there are so many people in this country who are going to college, coming out with very heavy debts and very low job prospects. i think we need two things in this country. we need more engineers, more people in the physical sciences. we graduate more college seniors in physical fitness today than we do in engineering or the physical sciences but we also need people with real world work skills and there's nothing wrong with that. >> i agree. i think this is a bit of a trickle, not a flood. but to the extent this will support interest in, for example, two year vocational schools like we used to have back in my day, rather than four year colleges where people can learn an actual skill like welding, i think it's a great trend. >> look at that. smack on time. thank you, gentlemen. next, quentin hardy highlights how google's good enough office style software suite is cutting into

microsoft's mainstay of word and outlook for business. tyler, it's clearly an attractive price point. google charging ceos $50, we learned, per employee per year. what do you think? >> the suite of google documents and the google tools that are online are really very good and very competitive with microsoft. microsoft, though it still has a commanding presence in the enterprise space, really is sitting there ripe to be taken, if you will. so many people today use g-mail and that's sort of the window in, sort of the leading wedge into the enterprise space, it seems to me. if google can solve some of the security issues and the other things that are so appealing to the enterprise i.t. managers, then i think they've got a real possibility of major growth in the enterprise space there. i would suggest you need to go see dr. jack daniels after this program. >> yes. i know just the place to go. i think the important thing here is number one, google has a big

jump on them in terms of moving things to the cloud on microsoft. number two, 50 bucks? you can't beat that. >> let's -- you're on your way to consult jack daniels, bob, how would you react if out on a date, you were suddenly asked what your credit score was by the belle sitting opposite you? a deal breaker? >> this is one of those stories that sounds like a reporter is really trying to create a trend when there isn't one. first off, what 20-year-old knows what their credit score is? i don't know of any. secondly, to answer your question directly, if i was out on a date and somebody asked me what my credit score was, in the first date, it would be the last one, sweetheart. >> i'm a 770, ladies. how about that. mary thompson, what do you think? if i told you what my credit score was, would you date me? >> i would date you whatever your credit score was. >> that's what i wanted to hear. >> good or bad. i would take you. >> credit scores on the first date. forget about it!

>> don't you think when a woman sits next to a man she instantly is basically sizing up exactly that as one of the criteria, how much cash does the guy have? of course they do. >> i don't think so. really? i don't think so. no. >> i can think of different numbers. >> he needs to go. ty? over to you. in our next hour, more nonsense. have you heard about the fiscal cliff? we go deeper into another cliff that's more of a threat to our economy. it is the container cliff. i own maria's italian kitchen. we employ 400 people. the fiscal cliff is going to impact our business, who knows how much we can spend to increase our business and expansion may not be possible. the customers are so uncertain as to how they will spend their money that eating out may be considered a luxury. it really hinders our expansion possibilities. this is not a partisan issue.

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